Bitcoin long-term Price Analysis: 03 August


With the cryptocurrency’s price recovering from yesterday’s crash, Bitcoin finds itself in a pickle with an important resistance preventing its march higher on the charts. With over a billion dollars in positions liquidated, the Open Interest and the volatility have all dried up. While BTC’s price has been slowly trying to head higher, despite it moving sideways, this run-up might just be a fluke.

Bitcoin 4-hour chart

Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

From the attached chart, it is clear that Bitcoin was facing resistance at the 23.60%-Fibonacci level aka $11,271. This had been a tough level to breach even before the breakout that pushed the price to $12,000. Hence, the reason to short the market comes from this level, in addition to the CME gap mentioned previously. During the last crash, the cryptocurrency’s price had dipped to $10,650 but it did not hit the top of the CME gap. Hence, a retracement or perhaps a change in trend seems likely.

Targets

There are two short positions that can be opened – The first can be opened at $11,269 with stop-loss at $11,477 and take-profit at $9,663, or just above the gap at $9,700. This position would yield a risk-to-reward ratio of ~7.74.

The second short position is a bit more considerate and allows the price room to move higher than the 23.60%-Fib level. Instead of prior opening, this short position can be opened a little higher at $11,463 with a stop-loss set at $11,896 and take-profit at $9,665 or $9,700. Unlike the previous position, this one risks a lot of capital. However, it also takes into consideration wild swings to the top trying to hit $12,000 again.

The take-profit zone also receives a strong and confident buff as the 50-DMA [yellow] was also heading towards near the bottom of the CME gap at $9,665, at the time of writing.

Either way, a 15% drop in Bitcoin’s price can be expected as it dips towards the CME gap.



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